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Over the last 14 months, Africa and the entire world experienced the worst Socioeconomic challenges of alarming proportion. Specifically, on 30 December 2019, an epidemiological alert was issued by the Chinese Wuhan local health authority of the emergence of a new strand of the coronavirus—severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARSCoV2)—which causes what has come to be known as coronavirus disease 2019 (COVI 19). Africa’s first case of COVID19 was recorded in Egypt on 14 February 2020, followed by Nigeria on 27 February 2020. Early in March 2020, Algeria, Cameroon, Morocco, Senegal, South Africa, Togo and Tunisia reported positive cases. From then, the virus spread to all over Africa as in other parts of the globe

This paper examines the determinants of the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Africa, based on the framework of social determinants of health. Applying Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) and quantile regressions to panel data and country-specific socioeconomic background data from 53 African countries, the study finds that enhancing capacity for early testing helps for timeous uncovering of cases, early isolation and contact tracing for effective control of the spread. Other factors such as managing of international movements through reduction of international exposure and ensuring better sanitation and hygiene were found to be relevant in diminishing COVID-19 spread, whereas alcohol consumption and population density heighten the spread. The work also highlights that stringent measures will be counter-productive unless they are coupled with measures to create...

The paper studies the effects of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on African economies and household welfare using a top-down sequential macro-micro simulation approach. The pandemic is modeled as a supply shock that disrupts economic activities of African countries and then affects households’ consumption behavior, the level of their welfare, and businesses’ investment decisions. The macroeconomic dynamic general equilibrium model is calibrated to account for informality, a key feature of African economies. We find that COVID-19 could diminish employment in the formal and informal sectors and contract consumption of non-savers and, especially, savers. These contractions would lead to an economic recession in Africa and widen both fiscal and current account deficits. Extreme poverty is expected to increase further in Africa, in particular if the welfare of the...

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a huge impact on the global economy and stressed the health care systems worldwide. Measuring the burden of disease on health and economy is essential for system preparedness by way of allocation of funds and human resources. Methods: The present study estimates Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), Years of Potential Productive Life Lost (YPPLL) and Cost of Productivity Lost (CPL) due to premature mortality and absenteeism, secondary to COVID-19 in Kerala state, India. The impact of disease on various age-gender cohorts has been analyzed. Sensitivity Analysis has been conducted by adjusting six variables with a total of 21 scenarios. Results: Severity of infection and mortality were higher among older sub-group of patients, and male were more susceptible than female in most of the age groups. DALY for the baseline scenario was 15,924.24...

The study examined the impact of COVID-19 on economic growth in Nigeria: Opinions and attitudes. The purpose was to ascertain respondents’ perception of the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic growth in Nigeria. The cross-sectional survey research design was employed and a mix-method was used in collecting the research data. Content validity index and face validity served to validate the research instrument while Cronbach alpha was used to assure its reliability. The secondary data were analysed using percentage changes while the primary data were analysed using a one-sample t-test and least-squares method. Results of the respondents’ opinion indicated that the COVID-19-induced lockdown has significantly constrained economic activities and the circular flow of income. Lastly, the perceived reduction in the circular flow of income in the wake of the COVID-19 lockdown has...

Background: Healthcare workers are at a higher risk of COVID-19 infection during care encounters compared to the general population. Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) have been shown to protect COVID-19 among healthcare workers, however, Kenya has faced PPE shortages that can adequately protect all healthcare workers. We, therefore, examined the health and economic consequences of investing in PPE for healthcare workers in Kenya. Methods: We conducted a cost-effectiveness and return on investment (ROI) analysis using a decision-analytic model following the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) guidelines. We examined two outcomes: 1) the cost per healthcare worker death averted, and 2) the cost per healthcare worker COVID-19 case averted. We performed a multivariate sensitivity analysis using 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Results:...

India’s current COVID-19 surge is an unprecedented public health crisis. With exponential growth in the number of daily COVID-19 cases since March, 2021, India reported more than 400 000 new cases daily on May 1, 2021.1 This number is likely to be an underestimate of the true burden of COVID-19 cases, given reports of backlogs of test results, poor access to testing, and many people not getting tested due to fear and stigma.2, 3 Without mitigation, estimates suggest India could reach more than 1 million COVID-19 cases per day with over 1 million cumulative COVID-19 deaths by Aug 1, 2021.4 The Indian Government and health authorities must act fast to flatten this second wave. We strongly endorse the national action plan laid out by The Lancet COVID-19 Commission India Task Force and we have summarised some of their recommendations in the panel .5 Early in the pandemic, India...

The most severe threat that the Covid-19 pandemic poses to the global economy is the need to choose between human lives and livelihoods. Bangladesh must assess the implications of such impacts on Bangladesh’s macro-financial scenario to maintain the economy’s current high growth trajectory. The paper outlines the major Covid-19 shock wave transmission channels to the four major sectors of the Bangladesh economy. Authorities around the world have taken every precaution possible to halt the spread of the pandemic. An aggregate transmission framework that includes these four sectors is required to contain the impact of Covid-19 can propagate through these sectors and eventually impact macro-financial stability.

This paper presents a two-way factor design incorporating both spatial and temporal variation in the prediction of COVID 19 in Africa. In line with this, the impact of COVID-19on the GDP in Africa is well scrutinized. In contrast to the existing works [1–3], this work also extends the two-factor design into the one-way factor design through incorporating covariates into spatial effects. The data rely on the spatial and temporal obtained from WHO datasets [4, 5]. The one-factor design with more covariates is taken into consideration to identify the major potential predictor variables responsible for the deaths and confirmed cases due to COVID 19 in Africa. The MANCOVA considered population density, temperature, humidity; perception, and wind are all considered as co-variates. Simulations show that the two-way analysis of variance has shown that there is a statistically...

The ongoing pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has the potential to reverse progress towards global targets. This study examines the risks that the COVID-19 pandemic poses to equitable access to essential medicines and vaccines (EMV) for universal health coverage in Africa. We searched medical databases and grey literature up to 2 October 2020 for studies reporting data on prospective pathways and innovative strategies relevant for the assessment and management of the emerging risks in accessibility, safety, quality, and affordability of EMV in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. We used the resulting pool of evidence to support our analysis and to draw policy recommendations to mitigate the emerging risks and improve preparedness for future crises. Of the 310 records screened, 134 were included in the analysis. We found that the disruption of the international...