Repurposing’ existing drugs to treat COVID-19 is vital to reducing mortality and controlling the pandemic. Several promising drugs have been identified and are in various stages of clinical trials globally. If efficacy of these drugs is demonstrated, rapid, mass availability at an affordable cost would be essential to ensuring equity and access especially amongst low- and middle-income economies. Minimum costs of production were estimated from the costs of active pharmaceutical ingredients using established methodology, which had good predictive accuracy for medicines for hepatitis C and HIV amongst others. Data were extracted from global export shipment records or analysis of the route of chemical synthesis. The estimated costs were compared with list prices from a range of countries where pricing data were available. Minimum estimated costs of production were US $0.93/day for...
Presented here is a simplified mathematical model describing a supply side crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic (COVID – 19). Model of a single-product economy is presented where the supply shock has a constant acceleration. If amount of the supply shock has a modest positive acceleration the product earnings are positive and increasing with the passage of time. We observe an economic growth. If amount of the supply shock has a large positive acceleration the product earnings are negative and decreasing with the passage of time. We observe an economic decline. If amount of the supply shock has a negative acceleration the product earnings are negative and decreasing with the passage of time. We observe an economic decline. Economic mechanism of the supply side crisis is conceptually close to a mechanism of economic growth caused by investment. Moreover, economic system is able...
During the COVID-19 crisis there have been many difficult decisions
governments and other decision makers had to make. E.g. do we go for a total
lock down or keep schools open? How many people and which people should be
tested? Although there are many good models from e.g. epidemiologists on the
spread of the virus under certain conditions, these models do not directly
translate into the interventions that can be taken by government. Neither can
these models contribute to understand the economic and/or social consequences
of the interventions. However, effective and sustainable solutions need to take
into account this combination of factors. In this paper, we propose an
agent-based social simulation tool, ASSOCC, that supports decision makers
understand possible consequences of policy interventions, bu exploring the
combined social, health and economic consequences of...
The World Health Organization currently recommends that governments scale up testing for COVID-19 infection. We performed health economic analyses projecting whether the additional costs from screening would be offset by the avoided costs with hospitalizations. We analysed Portuguese COVID-19 data up until the 22nd March 2020, and estimated the additional number of cases that would be detected if different testing rates and frequencies of positive results would have been observed. We projected that, in most scenarios, the costs with scaling up COVID-19 tests would be lower than savings with hospitalization costs, rendering large scale testing cost-saving.