Though COVID vaccines are finally available, the rate at which they are administered is slow, and in the meantime the pandemic continues to claim about as many lives every day as the 9/11 tragedy. I estimate that with the promised rate of vaccinations, if no additional non-pharmaceutical interventions are implemented, 406 thousand additional lives will be lost and the future cost of the pandemic will reach $2.4 trillion, or 11% of GDP. Using a cost-benefit analysis, I assess whether it is optimal for the United States to follow the lead of many European countries and introduce a nation-wide lockdown. I find that a lockdown would be indeed optimal and, depending on the assumptions, it should last between two and four weeks and will generate a net benefit of up to $1.2 trillion.
Many countries have been implementing various control measures with different strictness levels to prevent the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from spreading. With the great reduction in human mobility and daily activities, considerable impacts have been imposed on the global air transportation industry. This study applies a hybrid SARIMA-based intervention model to measure the differences in the impacts of different control measures implemented in China, the U.S. and Singapore on air passenger and air freight traffic. To explore the effect of time span for the measures to be in force, two scenarios are invented, namely a long-term intervention and a short-term intervention, and predictions are made till the end of 2020 for all three countries under both scenarios. As a result, predictive patterns of the selected metrics for the three countries are rather different. China is...
This study measures the global economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak. This pandemic is characterized by demand and supply shocks, leading to restrictions on trade, product and service transactions, and capital flow mobility. We investigate its impact on currency markets, stock market performance, and investor fear sentiment. We employ an empirical, time-scale approach based on the continuous wavelet transform-appropriate for time-series characteristics during times of turmoil. Based on daily data for four main cluster countries (China, France, Italy, and the USA), our results show that the impact of the pandemic’s evolution on the main economic indicators in China exhibits a different pattern from France, Italy, and the USA. For China, our results show that the pandemic evolution co-moves with the main economic indicators only in the short term (one week). The effect is more...
People with disabilities and chronic health conditions rely on a range of services and supports to complete daily tasks, maintain health, and participate in the community. Preliminary research suggests the COVID-19 pandemic greatly disrupted these services and this population may be particularly susceptible to unemployment. Describe employment and service disruptions for individuals with disabilities and chronic health conditions during the onset of community-based spread of COVID-19 in the United States. Adults with disabilities and chronic health conditions completed online surveys to report employment and service changes via multiple choice and open-ended questions. Multiple choice questions were analyzed using descriptive statistics; open-ended responses were coded using content analysis. Participants (n = 109): 79.8% female, 88.1% white, 77.121% completed a 4-year college degree...
Due to the novel coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19), the lockdown engendered has had a vicious impact on the global economy. This analysis’ prime intention is to evaluate the impact of the United States’ economic and health crisis as a result of COVID-19 on its financial stability. Additionally, the investigation analyzed the spillover impact of the worldwide economic slowdown experienced by COVID-19 on the United States’ financial volatility. The study applied an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and discovered that the economic and health crises that occurred in the United States portentously upset the future expectations of its investors. Conspicuously, the health crisis in Spain and Italy were ominous spillovers of the United States’ financial instability in the short-run. Likewise, an economic crisis ensued in the United Kingdom because of COVID-19 causing spillover for...
The value of frequent, rapid testing to reduce community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is poorly understood. To define performance standards and predict the clinical, epidemiologic, and economic outcomes of nationwide, home-based antigen testing. A simple compartmental epidemic model that estimated viral transmission, portrayed disease progression, and forecast resource use, with and without testing. Parameter values and ranges as informed by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance and published literature. U.S. population. 60 days. Societal; costs included testing, inpatient care, and lost workdays. Home-based SARS-CoV-2 antigen testing. Cumulative infections and deaths, number of persons isolated and hospitalized, and total costs. Without a testing intervention, the model anticipates 11.6 million infections, 119 000 deaths, and $10.1 billion in costs ($6.5 billion in...
An epidemic carries human and fiscal costs. In the case of imported
pandemics, the first-best solution is to restrict national borders to identify
and isolate infected individuals. However, when that opportunity is not fully
seized and there is no preventative intervention available, second-best options
must be chosen. In this article we develop a system of differential equations
that simulate both the fiscal and human costs associated to different
mitigation measurements. After simulating several scenarios, we conclude that
herd immunity (or unleashing the pandemic) is the worst policy in terms of both
human and fiscal cost. We found that the second-best policy would be a strict
policy (e.g. physical distancing with massive testing) established under the
first 20 days after the pandemic, that lowers the probability of infection by
80%. In the case of the US, this strict...
This note estimates the costs and benefits of a nationwide COVID-19 screening testing program in the presence of vaccine distribution. Even for an optimistic vaccine rollout scenario, a well-designed federally-funded screening testing program, coupled with self-isolation of those who test positive, pays for itself in terms of increased GDP and is projected to save 20,000 or more lives. The sooner the testing program is put in place, the greater are its net economic benefits. This note updates the December 9, 2020 version to include updated deaths data, later dates for rolling out the screening testing program, and the spread of more contagious variants such as the B.1.1. 7 variant.
The COVID-19 pandemic is a global crisis impacting population health and the economy. We describe a cost-effectiveness framework for evaluating acute treatments for hospitalized patients with COVID-19, considering a broad spectrum of potential treatment profiles and perspectives within the US healthcare system to ensure incorporation of the most relevant clinical parameters, given evidence currently available. A lifetime model, with a short-term acute care decision tree followed by a post-discharge three-state Markov cohort model, was developed to estimate the impact of a potential treatment relative to best supportive care (BSC) for patients hospitalized with COVID-19. The model included information on costs and resources across inpatient levels of care, use of mechanical ventilation, post-discharge morbidity from ventilation, and lifetime healthcare and societal costs. Published...
Background: To examine racial and ethnic differences in wealth and other economic, exposure and baseline health-related risks of COVID-19 among older adults in the U.S. Methods: Using rich data on wealth and long-term care use among older Americans unique to the 2016 Health and Retirement Study, we quantify differences in COVID-19 vulnerability among non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic respondents aged 50+. We measure wealth, other economic (insurance, income); exposure (long-term care, employment, telework, household size); and health (chronic conditions, smoking) risk stratified by age (50-64, 65+). Results: Blacks and Hispanics face dramatically greater financial risk that potentially increases exposure to COVID-19, relative to whites; Blacks and Hispanics are four to five times more likely to have no financial wealth. Blacks are also more likely than whites to...