Dear EditorRecently it has been highlighted by ESPEN Council that the COVID-19 pandemic is posing unprecedented challenges worldwide. There is significant correlation between age and poly-morbidity and these factors are independently associated with malnutrition and its negative impact on patient survival . The COVID-19 outbreak has shattered the world’s economic giants with an estimated loss of $1 trillion during year 2020. This economic dent could have drastic effects on people living in extreme poverty . As in year 2019 top donor countries of humanitarian aid and world food program were United States of America (USA), Germany, United Kingdom, and European Commission respectively (Fig. 1
). Unfortunately these countries were badly hit by the COVID-19 pandemic costing approximately 65, 000 lives so far . As a result, economies of these countries are badly shattered and...
The global impact of COVID-19 pandemic on output and public finances in 2020 and beyond is projected to be massive. Fiscal policy has a crucial role in mitigating the pandemic’s over
The outbreak of coronavirus and the infectious disease it causes (COVID-19) have taken different paths around the world, with countries experiencing different rates of infection, case prevalence and mortality. This simultaneous yet heterogenous process presents a natural experiment for understanding some of the reasons for such different experiences of the same shock. This paper looks at the privatization of healthcare as one key determinant of this pattern. We use a cross-section dataset covering 147 countries with the latest available data. Controlling for per capita income, health inequality and several other control variables, we find that a 10% increase in private health expenditure relates to 4.3% increase in COVID-19 cases and a 4.9% increase in COVID-19 related mortality. Globalization also has a small positive effect on COVID-19 prevalence, while higher hospital capacity (in...
Repurposing’ existing drugs to treat COVID-19 is vital to reducing mortality and controlling the pandemic. Several promising drugs have been identified and are in various stages of clinical trials globally. If efficacy of these drugs is demonstrated, rapid, mass availability at an affordable cost would be essential to ensuring equity and access especially amongst low- and middle-income economies. Minimum costs of production were estimated from the costs of active pharmaceutical ingredients using established methodology, which had good predictive accuracy for medicines for hepatitis C and HIV amongst others. Data were extracted from global export shipment records or analysis of the route of chemical synthesis. The estimated costs were compared with list prices from a range of countries where pricing data were available. Minimum estimated costs of production were US $0.93/day for...
Many prominent people have advocated that the IMF undertake an “SDR allocation” to assist countries in dealing with the global financial crisis brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic. To most experts, the idea seems like a no-brainer, but some IMF shareholders have voiced concerns, particularly the United States, which has a controlling vote in the matter. If IMF shareholders show some leadership and bureaucratic flexibility, there are ways to allay the American government’s concerns and quickly get liquidity in the hands of countries who desperately need it.
Presented here is a simplified mathematical model describing a supply side crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic (COVID – 19). Model of a single-product economy is presented where the supply shock has a constant acceleration. If amount of the supply shock has a modest positive acceleration the product earnings are positive and increasing with the passage of time. We observe an economic growth. If amount of the supply shock has a large positive acceleration the product earnings are negative and decreasing with the passage of time. We observe an economic decline. If amount of the supply shock has a negative acceleration the product earnings are negative and decreasing with the passage of time. We observe an economic decline. Economic mechanism of the supply side crisis is conceptually close to a mechanism of economic growth caused by investment. Moreover, economic system is able...
During the COVID-19 crisis there have been many difficult decisions
governments and other decision makers had to make. E.g. do we go for a total
lock down or keep schools open? How many people and which people should be
tested? Although there are many good models from e.g. epidemiologists on the
spread of the virus under certain conditions, these models do not directly
translate into the interventions that can be taken by government. Neither can
these models contribute to understand the economic and/or social consequences
of the interventions. However, effective and sustainable solutions need to take
into account this combination of factors. In this paper, we propose an
agent-based social simulation tool, ASSOCC, that supports decision makers
understand possible consequences of policy interventions, bu exploring the
combined social, health and economic consequences of...
In this paper, we predict the health and economic consequences of immediate investment in personal protective equipment (PPE) for health care workers (HCWs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). An investment of $3.485 billion USD would adequately protect HCWs in all LMICs. This intervention saves 789,557 (95% CI: 741,905 to 837,209) lives across LMICs, costing $418 USD per HCW case averted and $4,448 USD per HCW life saved. The societal return on investment (ROI) is $241.1 billion USD, the equivalent of a 6,918% return. Regional and national estimates are also presented. In scenarios where PPE remains scarce, 70-100% of HCWs will get infected, irrespective of nationwide social distancing policies. Maintaining HCW infection rates below 10% and mortality below 1% requires inclusion of a PPE scale-up strategy as part of the pandemic response. In conclusion, wide-scale...
The World Health Organization currently recommends that governments scale up testing for COVID-19 infection. We performed health economic analyses projecting whether the additional costs from screening would be offset by the avoided costs with hospitalizations. We analysed Portuguese COVID-19 data up until the 22nd March 2020, and estimated the additional number of cases that would be detected if different testing rates and frequencies of positive results would have been observed. We projected that, in most scenarios, the costs with scaling up COVID-19 tests would be lower than savings with hospitalization costs, rendering large scale testing cost-saving.