Journal Article
18 May 2021
Kong, Xiangsha, Liu, Feng, Wang, Haibo, Yang, Ruifeng, Chen, Dongbo, Wang, Xiaoxiao, Lu, Fengmin, Rao, Huiying, Chen, Hongsong
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At the end of 2019, an outbreak of pneumonia took place caused by a new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2 virus), named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A series of strict prevention and control measures were then implemented to reduce the spread of the epidemic. Influenza, another respiratory tract virus, may also respond to these measures. To assess the impact of these measures, we used the total number of passengers movement in mainland China from 2018 to 2020 and daily number of railway passenger flow during the 2020 Spring Festival travel rush to reflect the population movement and to analyze newly and cumulatively confirmed COVID-19 and influenza cases. We found that implementing the series of measures against COVID-19 mitigated both COVID-19 and influenza epidemics in China. Prevention and control measures for COVID-19 might be used to control respiratory tract infections to...
News (peer reviewed)
6 May 2021
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Remdesivir given for 5 days is a cost-effective treatment for patients hospitalised with severe COVID-19 in China, according to a study published in the British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology.The study used a dynamic compartment transmission model to evaluate the cost effectiveness of remdesivir given for 5 days, compared with standard of care, for the treatment of patients hospitalised with severe COVID-19. The base-case analysis assumed an acquisition cost of ¥16 600 ($US2340) for the 5-day remdesivir treatment course. The analysis was conducted from the perspective of the healthcare system in China.The model projected that 5 days of treatment with remdesivir was associated with a net gain of 6947 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) over the 55-day time horizon at an incremental cost of ¥97.93 million (year 2020 value). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for...
Journal Article
3 May 2021
Zhao, Jidi, Jin, Huajie, Li, Xun, Jia, Jianguo, Zhang, Chao, Zhao, Huijuan, Ma, Wuren, Wang, Zhuozhu, He, Yi, Lee, Jimmy, Zhang, Donglan, Yin, Bo, Zheng, Weiwei, Wang, Haiyin,Pennington, Mark
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Movement restriction policies (MRPs) are effective in preventing/delaying COVID-19 transmission but are associated with high societal cost. This study aims to estimate the health burden of the first wave of COVID-19 in China and the cost-effectiveness of early versus late implementation of MRPs to inform preparation for future waves. The SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered) modeling framework was adapted to simulate the health and cost outcomes of initiating MRPs at different times: rapid implementation (January 23, the real-world scenario), delayed by 1 week, delayed by 2 weeks, and delayed by 4 weeks. The end point was set as the day when newly confirmed cases reached zero. Two costing perspectives were adopted: healthcare and societal. Input data were obtained from official statistics and published literature. The primary outcomes were disability-adjusted...
Preprint
16 April 2021
Zhang, Yafei, Wang, Lin, Zhu, Jonathan J. H., Wang, Xiaofan
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The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has wreaked havoc worldwide with millions of lives claimed, human travel restricted, and economic development halted. Leveraging city-level mobility and case data across mainland China, our analysis shows that the spatial dissemination of COVID-19 in mainland China can be well explained by the human migration from Wuhan and there will be very different outcomes if the COVID-19 outbreak occurred in other cities. For example, the outbreak in Beijing or Guangzhou would result in a $\sim$90% increase of COVID-19 cases at the end of the Chinese New Year holiday. After the implementation of a series of control measures, human mobility had experienced substantial changes toward containing the spread of COVID-19. Our results also suggest an inequality of economic deprivation as less developed areas generally suffered more...
Journal Article
16 April 2021
Jiang, Yawen, Cai, Dan, Chen, Daqin, Jiang, Shan, Si, Lei, Wu, Jing
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The present study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the 5-day remdesivir regimen compared with standard of care among severe COVID-19 patients in China, the evidence on which is essential to inform the necessity of securing access to remdesivir. A dynamic transmission model that extended the susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered framework by incorporating asymptomatic, presymptomatic and waiting-to-be-diagnosed patients was constructed to conduct the cost-effectiveness analysis from the healthcare system perspective. To estimate epidemic parameters, the model was first calibrated to the observed epidemic curve in Wuhan from 23 January to 19 March 2020. Following the calibration, the infected compartment was replaced by 3 severity-defined health states to reflect differential costs and quality of life associated with disease gravity. Costs and quality-adjusted life year...
Preprint
15 April 2021
Liu, Taoran, He, Zonglin, Huang, Jian, Yan, Ni, Chen, Qian, Huang, Fengqiu, Zhang, Yuejia, Akinwunmi, Omolola M, Akinwunmi, Babatunde O, Zhang, Casper J P, Wu, Yibo, Ming, Wai Kit
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Objectives: To investigate the differences in vaccine hesitancy and preference of the currently available COVID-19 vaccines between two countries, viz. China and the United States (US). Method: A cross-national survey was conducted in both China and the US, and discrete choice experiments as well as Likert scales were utilized to assess vaccine preference and the underlying factors contributing to the vaccination acceptance. A propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to enable a direct comparison between the two countries. Results: A total of 9,077 (5,375 and 3,702, respectively, from China and the US) respondents have completed the survey. After propensity score matching, over 82.0% respondents from China positively accept the COVID-19 vaccination, while 72.2% respondents form the US positively accept it. Specifically, only 31.9% of Chinese respondents were recommended by a...
Journal Article
9 April 2021
Zhang, Yumei, Diao, Xinshen, Chen, Kevin Z, Robinson, Sherman, Fan, Shenggen
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Purpose: The purpose of this study is to assess the potential economic cost of the COVID-19 pandemic on China’s macroeconomy and agri-food system and provide policy recommendations to stimulate economic growth and agri-food system development. Design/methodology/approach: An economy-wide multisector multiplier model built on China’s most recent social accounting matrix (SAM) for 2017 with 149 economic sectors is used to assess the impact of COVID-19 on China’s macroeconomy and agri-food system. SAM multiplier analysis focuses on supply chain linkages and captures the complexity of an interconnected economy. Findings: The paper finds that both the macroeconomy and agri-food systems are hit significantly by COVID-19. There are three main findings. First, affected by COVID-19, GDP decreased by 6.8% in the first quarter of 2020 compared with that in 2019, while the economic loss of the...
Journal Article
17 March 2021
Meng, Fanyu,Gong, Wenwu,Liang, Jun,Li, Xian,Zeng, Yiping,Yang, Lili
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Many countries have been implementing various control measures with different strictness levels to prevent the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from spreading. With the great reduction in human mobility and daily activities, considerable impacts have been imposed on the global air transportation industry. This study applies a hybrid SARIMA-based intervention model to measure the differences in the impacts of different control measures implemented in China, the U.S. and Singapore on air passenger and air freight traffic. To explore the effect of time span for the measures to be in force, two scenarios are invented, namely a long-term intervention and a short-term intervention, and predictions are made till the end of 2020 for all three countries under both scenarios. As a result, predictive patterns of the selected metrics for the three countries are rather different. China is...
Journal Article
17 March 2021
Louhichi, Waël,Ftiti, Zied,Ameur, Hachmi Ben
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This study measures the global economic impact of the coronavirus outbreak. This pandemic is characterized by demand and supply shocks, leading to restrictions on trade, product and service transactions, and capital flow mobility. We investigate its impact on currency markets, stock market performance, and investor fear sentiment. We employ an empirical, time-scale approach based on the continuous wavelet transform-appropriate for time-series characteristics during times of turmoil. Based on daily data for four main cluster countries (China, France, Italy, and the USA), our results show that the impact of the pandemic’s evolution on the main economic indicators in China exhibits a different pattern from France, Italy, and the USA. For China, our results show that the pandemic evolution co-moves with the main economic indicators only in the short term (one week). The effect is more...
Journal Article
15 March 2021
Wang, Jiahao,Lyu, Yun,Zhang, Haijun,Jing, Rize,Lai, Xiaozhen,Feng, Huangyufei,Knoll, Maria Deloria,Fang, Hai
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The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant diseases and economic burdens in the world. Vaccines are often considered as a cost-effective way to prevent and control infectious diseases, and the research and development of COVID-19 vaccines have been progressing unprecedently. It is needed to understand individuals’ willingness to pay (WTP) among general population, which provides information about social demand, access and financing for future COVID-19 vaccination. To investigate individuals’ WTP and financing mechanism preference for COVID-19 vaccination during the pandemic period in China. During March 1-18, 2020, we conducted a network stratified random sampling survey with 2058 respondents in China. The survey questionnaires included out-of-pocket WTP, financing mechanism preference as well as basic characteristics of the respondents; risk perception and impact of the COVID-19...