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We apply the SIR-macro model proposed by Eichenbaum et al. (2020) in its complete version to comparatively study the interaction between economic decisions and COVID-19 epidemics in five different Brazilian states: São Paulo (SP), Amazonas (AM), Ceará (CE), Rio de Janeiro (RJ) and Pernambuco (PE). Our objective is to analyze qualitatively how the main intrinsic differences of each of these states can affect the epidemic dynamics and its consequences. For this purpose, we compute and compare the model for each of the states, both in competitive equilibrium and under optimal containment policy adoption, and analyze the implications of optimal policy adoption. We conclude that the intrinsic characteristics of the five different states imply relevant differences in the general dynamics of the epidemic, in the optimal containment policies, in the effect of the adoption of these policies...

We use microsimulation to estimate the distributional consequences of covid-19-induced lockdown policies in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico. Our estimates of the poverty consequences are worse than many others’ projections because we do not assume that the income losses are proportionally equal across the income distribution. We also simulate the effects of most of the expanded social assistance governments have introduced in response to the crisis. This has a large offsetting effect in Brazil and Argentina, much less in Colombia. In Mexico, there has been no such expansion. Contrary to prior expectations, we find that the worst effects are not on the poorest, but those (roughly) in the middle of the ex ante income distribution. In Brazil we find that poverty among the afrodescendants and indigenous populations increases by more than for whites, but the offsetting effects of...

Heterogeneity in COVID-19 morbidity and mortality is often associated with a country’s health-services structure and social inequality. This study aimed to characterize social inequalities in COVID-19 mortality in São Paulo, the most populous city in Brazil and Latin America. We conducted a population-based study, including COVID-19 deaths among São Paulo residents from March to September 2020. Age-standardized mortality rates and unadjusted rate ratios (RRs) [with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs)] were estimated by race, sex, age group, district of residence, household crowding, educational attainment, income level and percentage of households in subnormal areas in each district. Time trends in mortality were assessed using the Joinpoint model. Males presented an 84% increase in COVID-19 mortality compared with females (RR = 1.84, 95% CI 1.79-1.90). Higher mortality...

We analyze the trade-offs between health and the economy during the period of social distancing in São Paulo, the state hardest hit by the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. We use longitudinal data with municipal-level information and check the robustness of our estimates to several sources of bias, including spatial dependence, reverse causality, and time-variant omitted variables. We use exogenous climate shocks as instruments for social distancing since people are more likely to stay home in wetter and colder periods. Our findings suggest that the health benefits of social distancing differ by levels of municipal development and may have vanished if the COVID-19 spread was not controlled in neighboring municipalities. In turn, we did not find evidence that municipalities with tougher social distancing performed worse economically. Our results also highlight that estimates that do not...

To design better measures to contain the Covid-19 epidemics, it is relevant to know whether socioeconomic factors are associated with a higher risk of death by Covid-19. This work estimates the effects of individual socioeconomic characteristics on the risk of death by Covid-19. Logistic models were estimated to assess the effect of socioeconomic characteristics (income, race/ethnicity, schooling, occupation and economic activity) on the risk of death from Covid-19. For this purpose, Covid-19 individual death records in Rio de Janeiro state, Brazil were combined with the Annual Register of Social Information, which contains socioeconomic information about formal workers. Workers employed in establishments in the health and public safety sectors present a risk of dying 2.46 and 2.25 times higher than those employed in other activities. Non-white people, men, and those who work in the...

We investigated what degree of risk of infection with COVID-19 is necessary so that people intend to stay home, even when doing so means losing their salary. We conducted an online survey across Brazil during the initial outbreak, in which 8,345 participants answered a questionnaire designed to identify the maximum tolerated risk (k’) necessary for them to disregard social distancing recommendations and guarantee their salaries. Generalized linear mixed models, path analysis structural equation, and conditional interference classification tree were performed to further understand how sociodemographic factors impact k’ and to establish a predictive model for the risk behavior of leaving home during the pandemic. We found that, on average, people tolerate 38% risk of infection to leave home and earn a full salary, but this number decreased to 13% when the individual risk perception of...

This Essay reflects on how socio-spatial inequalities and geographic situations condition the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil, as well as actions to deal with the pandemic, with arguments backed by the literature. Socio-spatial inequality is defined as a process and structural condition of a territory marked by inherited and updated vulnerabilities, resulting from a relationship of exploitation, spoliation, and oppression in the current period of globalization. The authors argue that the COVID-19 pandemic can have more serious repercussions in contexts of greater socio-spatial inequality, with systemic and chronic deepening of the economic and social crises in places. Still, actions matter, including collaboration between different groups, institutions, and sectors. The analysis of geographic situation contributes to understanding the inherited territory and different experiences with...

We aimed to compare the prevalence of depression and anxiety symptoms before and during the pandemic and identify factors associated with aggravated mental health symptoms. Retrospective cohort study. We identified the proportion of normal, mild, moderate, and severe symptoms of depression and anxiety before and during the social distancing restrictions in adults from southern Brazil. An online, self-administered questionnaire was delivered for residents within the state of Rio Grande do Sul. Depressive and anxiety symptoms were examined by the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. Most of the participants (n = 2314) aged between 31 and 59 years (54.2%), were women (76.6%), White (90.6%) with a university degree (66.6%). Moderate-to-severe symptoms of depression and anxiety were reported in 3.9% and 4.5% of participants, respectively, before COVID-19. During the pandemic (June-July,...

Introduction: Although patients’ clinical conditions were previously shown to be associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity and outcomes, their impact on hospital costs is not known. The economic evaluation of COVID-19 admissions allows the assessment of hospital costs associated with the treatment of these patients, including the main cost components and costs driven by demographic and clinical conditions. The aim of this study was to determine the COVID-19 hospitalization-related costs and their association with clinical conditions. Methods: Prospective observational cohort study of the hospitalization costs of patients with COVID-19 admitted between March 30 and June 30, 2020, who were followed until discharge, death, or external transfer, using micro-costing methodology. The study was carried out in the Central Institute of the Hospital das Clinicas, affiliated...

A nationwide survey of dentists was carried out in Brazil, a new pandemic epicenter, to analyze how dental care coverage has been affected in public versus private networks, changes in routine and burdens, and how local prevalence of COVID-19 affects dental professionals. Dentists were recruited via email and Instagram®. Responses to a pre-tested questionnaire were collected May 15-24, 2020. COVID-19 case/death counts in the state where respondents work was used to test associations between contextual status and decreases in weekly appointments, fear of contracting COVID-19 at work, and current work status (α = 0.05). Over 10 days, 3,122 responses were received (response rate ~2.1%) from all Brazilian states. Work status was affected for 94%, with less developed regions being more impacted. The pandemic impact on clinical routine was high/very high for 84%, leading to varied...