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Social distancing is a matter of individuals’ choices as well as of regulation, and regulation arguably responds to those choices. We analyse weekly panel data on such behaviour for English Upper Tier Local Authorities (UTLAs) from March to July 2020, paying attention to the influence of poverty, as measured by free school meals provision. Panel regressions suggest that, although more stringent regulation and slightly lagged local cases of infection increase social distancing, both effects are weaker in UTLAs with higher levels of poverty. Thus motivated, we develop a two-class (rich/poor) model, in which a Nash non-cooperative equilibrium arises from individual choices in a regulatory regime with penalties for non-compliance. The model yields results in keeping with the empirical findings, indicating the desirability of generous measures to furlough workers in low-paid jobs as a...

We use microsimulation to estimate the distributional consequences of covid-19-induced lockdown policies in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia and Mexico. Our estimates of the poverty consequences are worse than many others’ projections because we do not assume that the income losses are proportionally equal across the income distribution. We also simulate the effects of most of the expanded social assistance governments have introduced in response to the crisis. This has a large offsetting effect in Brazil and Argentina, much less in Colombia. In Mexico, there has been no such expansion. Contrary to prior expectations, we find that the worst effects are not on the poorest, but those (roughly) in the middle of the ex ante income distribution. In Brazil we find that poverty among the afrodescendants and indigenous populations increases by more than for whites, but the offsetting effects of...

Using the universe of Austrian unemployment insurance records until May 2020, we document that the composition of UI claimants during the Covid-19 outbreak is substantially different compared to past times. Using a machine-learning algorithm from Gulyas and Pytka (2020), we identify individual earnings losses conditional on worker and job characteristics. Covid-19-related job terminations are associated with lower losses in earnings and wages compared to the Great Recession, but similar employment losses. We further derive an accurate but simple policy rule targeting individuals vulnerable to long-term wage losses.

I study the demand for health insurance during the COVID-19 pandemic using Special Enrollment Period (SEP) individual-level enrollment data from the Washington State Affordable Care Act Marketplace. I document that most individuals enrolling in plans during the pandemic are those who lost minimum essential coverage, followed by uninsured individuals making use of Washington’s limited-time SEP for uninsured individuals. I estimate a demand model and find that low-income individuals and young individuals are more premium sensitive. I find that 20.4 percent of the individuals in my analysis sample did not pay their initial premium. Individuals losing minimum essential coverage are less likely to pay their initial premium than individuals using the SEP for other qualifying events. Lower income individuals are less likely to pay the initial premium than higher income individuals. My...

The outbreak of COVID-19 led to a spike in the unemployment rate and a decrease in the number of job openings. It is unknown whether this shock in the labor market affects different groups of job seekers equally. With the help of a correspondence study I describe the relationship between labor market conditions and ethnic labor inequality. The results provide evidence of the changes in the ethnic employment gap during the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak. Moreover, these changes are accompanied by fluctuations in the labor market competition.

Pandemics have historically had a significant impact on economic inequality. However, official inequality statistics are only available at low frequency and with considerable delay, which challenges policymakers in their objective to mitigate inequality and fine-tune public policies. We show that using data from bank records it is possible to measure economic inequality at high frequency. The approach proposed in this paper allows measuring, timely and accurately, the impact on inequality of fast-unfolding crises, like the COVID-19 pandemic. Applying this approach to data from a representative sample of over three million residents of Spain we find that, absent government intervention, inequality would have increased by almost 30% in just one month. The granularity of the data allows analyzing with great detail the sources of the increases in inequality. In the Spanish case we find...

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico City has been sharp, as several social inequalities coexist with chronic comorbidities. Here, we conducted an in-depth evaluation of the impact of social, municipal, and individual factors on the COVID-19 pandemic in working-age population living in Mexico City. To this end, we used data from the National Epidemiological Surveillance System; furthermore, we used a multidimensional metric, the social lag index (DISLI), to evaluate its interaction with mean urban population density (MUPD) and its impact on COVID-19 rates. Influence DISLI and MUPD on the effect of vehicular mobility policies on COVID-19 rates were also tested. Finally, we assessed the influence of MUPD and DISLI on discrepancies of COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 excess mortality compared with death certificates from the General Civil Registry. We detected vulnerable groups who...

COVID-19 may spread rapidly in densely populated urban informal settlements. Kenya swiftly implemented mitigation policies; we assess the economic, social and health-related harm disproportionately impacting women. A prospective longitudinal cohort study with repeated mobile phone surveys in April, May and June 2020. 2009 households across five informal settlements in Nairobi, sampled from two previously interviewed cohorts. Outcomes include food insecurity, risk of household violence and forgoing necessary health services due to the pandemic. Gender-stratified linear probability regression models were constructed to determine the factors associated with these outcomes. By May, more women than men reported adverse effects of COVID-19 mitigation policies on their lives. Women were 6 percentage points more likely to skip a meal versus men (coefficient: 0.055; 95% CI 0.016 to 0.094),...

Heterogeneity in COVID-19 morbidity and mortality is often associated with a country’s health-services structure and social inequality. This study aimed to characterize social inequalities in COVID-19 mortality in São Paulo, the most populous city in Brazil and Latin America. We conducted a population-based study, including COVID-19 deaths among São Paulo residents from March to September 2020. Age-standardized mortality rates and unadjusted rate ratios (RRs) [with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs)] were estimated by race, sex, age group, district of residence, household crowding, educational attainment, income level and percentage of households in subnormal areas in each district. Time trends in mortality were assessed using the Joinpoint model. Males presented an 84% increase in COVID-19 mortality compared with females (RR = 1.84, 95% CI 1.79-1.90). Higher mortality...