The aims of this study were to evaluate health outcomes and the economic burden of hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the United States. Hospitalized patients with a primary or secondary discharge diagnosis code for COVID-19 (ICD-10 code U07.1) from 1 April to 31 October 2020 were identified in the Premier Healthcare COVID-19 Database. Patient demographics, hospitalization characteristics, and concomitant medical conditions were assessed. Hospital length of stay (LOS), in-hospital mortality, hospital charges, and hospital costs were evaluated overall and stratified by age groups, insurance types, and 4 COVID-19 disease progression states based on intensive care unit (ICU) and invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV) usage. Of the 173,942 hospitalized COVID-19 patients, the median age was 63 years, 51.0% were male, and 48.5% were covered by Medicare. The most prevalent concomitant medical...
The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was first reported in December 2019. Until now, many drugs and methods have been used in the treatment of the disease. However, no effective treatment option has been found and only case-based successes have been achieved so far. This study aims to evaluate COVID-19 treatment options using multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques. In this study, we evaluated the available COVID-19 treatment options by MCDM techniques, namely, fuzzy PROMETHEE and VIKOR. These techniques are based on the evaluation and comparison of complex and multiple criteria to evaluate the most appropriate alternative. We evaluated current treatment options including favipiravir (FPV), lopinavir/ritonavir, hydroxychloroquine, interleukin-1 blocker, intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG), and plasma exchange. The criteria used for the analysis include side...
To mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic, countries worldwide have enacted unprecedented movement restrictions, physical distancing measures, and face mask requirements. Until safe and efficacious vaccines or antiviral drugs become widely available, viral testing remains the primary mitigation measure for rapid identification and isolation of infected individuals. We aimed to assess the economic trade-offs of expanding and accelerating testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) across the USA in different transmission scenarios. We used a multiscale model that incorporates SARS-CoV-2 transmission at the population level and daily viral load dynamics at the individual level to assess eight surveillance testing strategies that varied by testing frequency (from daily to monthly testing) and isolation period (1 or 2 weeks), compared with the status-quo strategy of...
This paper estimates the benefits and costs of state suppression policies to “bend the curve” during the initial outbreak of COVID-19 in the United States. We employ a value-of-production approach that values benefits and costs in terms of additions or subtractions to total production. Relative to a baseline in which only the infected and at-risk populations mitigate the spread of coronavirus, we estimate that total benefits of suppression policies are between $605.9 billion and $841.1 billion from early March 2020 to August 1, 2020. Relative to private mitigation, the costs of suppression policies are estimated to be between $214.2 billion and $331.5 billion. The cost estimate is based on the duration of nonessential business closures and stay-at-home orders, which were enforced between 42 and 65 days. Our results indicate that the net benefits of suppression policies to slow...
As the COVID19 spreads across the world, prevention measures are becoming the
essential weapons to combat the pandemic in the period of crisis. The lockdown
measure is the most controversial one as it imposes an overwhelming impact on
our economy and society. Especially when and how to enforce the lockdown
measures are the most challenging questions considering both economic and
epidemiological costs. In this paper, we extend the classic SIR model to find
optimal decision making to balance between economy and people’s health during
the outbreak of COVID-19. In our model, we intend to solve a two phases
optimization problem: policymakers control the lockdown rate to maximize the
overall welfare of the society; people in different health statuses take
different decisions on their working hours and consumption to maximize their
utility. We develop a novel method to estimate...
The quality adjusted life year (QALY) as a basis of valuing additional expenditure on health is widely accepted. Although early in the COVID-19 pandemic, several commentators called for a similar approach in resolving trade-offs between economic activity and reducing the burden of COVID-19, this has not occurred. The value of a QALY has not been used to deny all intervention, as the rule of rescue attests. Further, while there was no other way of managing the pandemic, there were other means available to mitigate the economic losses. Now that vaccine programs have commenced in several countries, it is interesting to consider whether economic evaluation should now be applied. However, the recognised complexities of the evaluation of vaccines, plus the challenge of measuring opportunity costs in the face of an economic recession and the severity of the consequences of an outbreak even...
Policy makers need decision tools to determine when to use physical distancing interventions to maximize the control of COVID-19 while minimizing the economic and social costs of these interventions. We describe a pragmatic decision tool to characterize adaptive policies that combine real-time surveillance data with clear decision rules to guide when to trigger, continue, or stop physical distancing interventions during the current pandemic. In model-based experiments, we find that adaptive policies characterized by our proposed approach prevent more deaths and require a shorter overall duration of physical distancing than alternative physical distancing policies. Our proposed approach can readily be extended to more complex models and interventions.
Risk-cost-benefit analysis requires the enumeration of decision alternatives, their associated outcomes, and the quantification of uncertainty. Public and private decision-making surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic must contend with uncertainty about the probability of infection during activities involving groups of people, in order to decide whether that activity is worth undertaking. We propose a model of SARS-CoV-2 infection probability that can produce estimates of relative risk of infection for diverse activities, so long as those activities meet a list of assumptions, including that they do not last longer than one day (e.g., sporting events, flights, concerts), and that the probability of infection among possible routes of infection (i.e., droplet, aerosol, fomite, and direct contact) are independent. We show how the model can be used to inform decisions facing governments and...
Dear editorThe new COVID-19 vaccines become the hope for containing COVID-19 pandemic (1,2). As noted by Ita, many mRNA and DNA vaccines are under trails and the success is expected (1). At present, there are some newly proposed COVID-19 vaccines. As a new vaccine, there are many considerations including to the cost, effectiveness, and feasibility for usage in clinical settings. The different costs and effectiveness of different vaccines might be important factor for decision making for implementation of a new vaccination (3). Additionally, the vaccine that is appropriate for clinical usage, simple for keeping and administration, should be selected. Here, the authors would like to add up on the considerations regarding new COVID-19 vaccines. The authors reappraised on the new day on the five new COVID-19 vaccines (such as Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, Moderna vaccine, Oxford–Astrazeneca...