Working Paper
9 April 2021
Anna Scherbina
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Though COVID vaccines are finally available, the rate at which they are administered is slow, and in the meantime the pandemic continues to claim about as many lives every day as the 9/11 tragedy. I estimate that with the promised rate of vaccinations, if no additional non-pharmaceutical interventions are implemented, 406 thousand additional lives will be lost and the future cost of the pandemic will reach $2.4 trillion, or 11% of GDP. Using a cost-benefit analysis, I assess whether it is optimal for the United States to follow the lead of many European countries and introduce a nation-wide lockdown. I find that a lockdown would be indeed optimal and, depending on the assumptions, it should last between two and four weeks and will generate a net benefit of up to $1.2 trillion.
Working Paper
9 April 2021
James L. Doti
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This study analyzes the benefits of statewide policy intervention in reducing COVID-19 deaths and the costs of that intervention in lost jobs and lower real gross state product (RGSP). Policy interventions are measured by the Oxford stringency index which places a daily numerical value on the level of a state’s policy intervention. Empirical evidence is provided that shows policy interventions have reduced COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. by 358,000 lives in 2020. On the cost side, it was found that policy intervention resulted in a loss of 7.3 million jobs and a decline of $410 billion in RGSP. The study concludes by integrating the findings related to the benefits and costs of policy interventions to the economic cost per life saved for every state, as well as an estimate of the national average cost per life of $1.1 million. That figure is compared to an age-adjusted value of...
Journal Article
15 March 2021
Wang, Jiahao,Lyu, Yun,Zhang, Haijun,Jing, Rize,Lai, Xiaozhen,Feng, Huangyufei,Knoll, Maria Deloria,Fang, Hai
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The COVID-19 pandemic has caused significant diseases and economic burdens in the world. Vaccines are often considered as a cost-effective way to prevent and control infectious diseases, and the research and development of COVID-19 vaccines have been progressing unprecedently. It is needed to understand individuals’ willingness to pay (WTP) among general population, which provides information about social demand, access and financing for future COVID-19 vaccination. To investigate individuals’ WTP and financing mechanism preference for COVID-19 vaccination during the pandemic period in China. During March 1-18, 2020, we conducted a network stratified random sampling survey with 2058 respondents in China. The survey questionnaires included out-of-pocket WTP, financing mechanism preference as well as basic characteristics of the respondents; risk perception and impact of the COVID-19...
Journal Article
12 March 2021
Thom, Howard,Walker, Josephine,Vickerman, Peter,Hollingworth, Will
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In responding to covid-19, governments have tried to balance protecting health while minimising Gross Domestic Product (GDP) losses. We compare health-related net benefit (HRNB) and GDP losses associated with government responses of the UK, Ireland, Germany, Spain, and Sweden from UK healthcare payer perspective. We compared observed cases, hospitalisations, and deaths under “mitigation” to modelled events under “no mitigation” to 20th July 2020. We thus calculated healthcare costs, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), and HRNB at £20,000/QALY saved by each country. On per population (i.e. per capita) basis, we compared HRNB with forecast reductions in 2020 GDP growth (overall or compared to Sweden as minimal mitigation country) and qualitatively and quantitatively described government responses. The UK saved 3.17 (0.32-3.65) million QALYs, £33 (8-38) billion healthcare costs, and...
News (peer reviewed)
11 March 2021
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Rapid implementation of COVID-19 movement restriction policies (MRPs) in China reduces the health burden and
societal costs, according to findings of a study published in Value in Health
Journal Article
10 March 2021
Schnitzler, Lena,Janssen, Luca M M,Evers, Silvia M A A,Jackson, Louise J,Paulus, Aggie T G,Roberts, Tracy E,Pokhilenko, Irina
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AbstractThe rapid spread of the current COVID-19 pandemic has affected societies worldwide, leading to excess mortality, long-lasting health consequences, strained healthcare systems, and additional strains and spillover effects on other sectors outside health (i.e., intersectoral costs and benefits). In this perspective piece, we demonstrate the broader societal impacts of COVID-19 on other sectors outside the health sector and the growing importance of capturing these in health economic analyses. These broader impacts include, for instance, the effects on the labor market and productivity, education, criminal justice, housing, consumption, and environment. The current pandemic highlights the importance of adopting a societal perspective to consider these broader impacts of public health issues and interventions and only omit these where it can be clearly justified as appropriate to...
Preprint
10 March 2021
Blakely, Tony,Thompson, Jason,Bablani, Laxman,Andersen, Patrick,Ouakrim, Driss Ait,Carvalho, Natalie,Abraham, Patrick,Boujaoude, Marie Anne,Katar, Ameera,Akpan, Edifofon,Wilson, Nick,Stevenson, Mark
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Importance Determining the best policy on social restrictions and lockdowns for the COVID-19 pandemic is challenging.
Objective To determine the optimal policy response ranging from aggressive and moderate elimination, tight suppression (aiming for 1 to 5 cases per million per day) and loose suppression (5 to 25 cases per million per day).
Design Two simulation models in series: an agent-based model to estimate daily SARS-CoV-2 infection rates and time in four stages of social restrictions; a proportional multistate lifetable model to estimate long-run health impacts (health adjusted life years (HALYs) arising from SARS-CoV-2) and costs (health systems, and health system plus GDP).
The net monetary benefit (NMB) of each policy option at varying willingness to pay (WTP) per HALY was calculated: NMB = HALYs × WTP – cost. The optimal policy response was that with the highest NMB.
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Journal Article
9 March 2021
Paltiel, A David,Zheng, Amy,Sax, Paul E
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The value of frequent, rapid testing to reduce community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is poorly understood. To define performance standards and predict the clinical, epidemiologic, and economic outcomes of nationwide, home-based antigen testing. A simple compartmental epidemic model that estimated viral transmission, portrayed disease progression, and forecast resource use, with and without testing. Parameter values and ranges as informed by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance and published literature. U.S. population. 60 days. Societal; costs included testing, inpatient care, and lost workdays. Home-based SARS-CoV-2 antigen testing. Cumulative infections and deaths, number of persons isolated and hospitalized, and total costs. Without a testing intervention, the model anticipates 11.6 million infections, 119 000 deaths, and $10.1 billion in costs ($6.5 billion in...
Preprint
9 March 2021
Rogers, Will,Ruiz Aravena, Manuel,Hansen, Dale,Madden, Wyatt,Kessler, Maureen,Fields, Matthew W,Ferrari, Matthew J,Chang, Connie B,Morrow, Jayne,Hoegh, Andrew,Plowright, Raina K
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SARS-CoV-2 spreads quickly in dense populations, with serious implications for universities, workplaces, and other settings where exposure reduction practices are difficult to implement. Rapid screening has been proposed as a tool to slow the spread of the virus; however, many commonly used diagnostic tests (e.g., RT-qPCR) are expensive, difficult to deploy (e.g., require a nasopharyngeal specimen), and have extended turn-around times. We evaluated testing regimes that combined diagnostic testing using qPCR with high-frequency screening using a novel reverse-transcription loop-mediated isothermal amplification (RT-LAMP, herein LAMP) assay. We used a compartmental susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model to simulate screening of a university population. We also developed a Shiny application to allow administrators and public health professionals to develop optimal testing...
Preprint
5 March 2021
Atkeson, Andrew,Droste, Michael C,Mina, Michael J,Stock, James
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This note estimates the costs and benefits of a nationwide COVID-19 screening testing program in the presence of vaccine distribution. Even for an optimistic vaccine rollout scenario, a well-designed federally-funded screening testing program, coupled with self-isolation of those who test positive, pays for itself in terms of increased GDP and is projected to save 20,000 or more lives. The sooner the testing program is put in place, the greater are its net economic benefits. This note updates the December 9, 2020 version to include updated deaths data, later dates for rolling out the screening testing program, and the spread of more contagious variants such as the B.1.1. 7 variant.