During the COVID-19 crisis there have been many difficult decisions
governments and other decision makers had to make. E.g. do we go for a total
lock down or keep schools open? How many people and which people should be
tested? Although there are many good models from e.g. epidemiologists on the
spread of the virus under certain conditions, these models do not directly
translate into the interventions that can be taken by government. Neither can
these models contribute to understand the economic and/or social consequences
of the interventions. However, effective and sustainable solutions need to take
into account this combination of factors. In this paper, we propose an
agent-based social simulation tool, ASSOCC, that supports decision makers
understand possible consequences of policy interventions, bu exploring the
combined social, health and economic consequences of...
With a two-layer contact-dispersion model and data in China, we analyze the
cost-effectiveness of three types of antiepidemic measures for COVID-19:
regular epidemiological control, local social interaction control, and
inter-city travel restriction. We find that: 1) intercity travel restriction
has minimal or even negative effect compared to the other two at the national
level; 2) the time of reaching turning point is independent of the current
number of cases, and only related to the enforcement stringency of
epidemiological control and social interaction control measures; 3) strong
enforcement at the early stage is the only opportunity to maximize both
antiepidemic effectiveness and cost-effectiveness; 4) mediocre stringency of
social interaction measures is the worst choice. Subsequently, we cluster
countries/regions into four groups based on their control measures and...
In this paper, we predict the health and economic consequences of immediate investment in personal protective equipment (PPE) for health care workers (HCWs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). An investment of $3.485 billion USD would adequately protect HCWs in all LMICs. This intervention saves 789,557 (95% CI: 741,905 to 837,209) lives across LMICs, costing $418 USD per HCW case averted and $4,448 USD per HCW life saved. The societal return on investment (ROI) is $241.1 billion USD, the equivalent of a 6,918% return. Regional and national estimates are also presented. In scenarios where PPE remains scarce, 70-100% of HCWs will get infected, irrespective of nationwide social distancing policies. Maintaining HCW infection rates below 10% and mortality below 1% requires inclusion of a PPE scale-up strategy as part of the pandemic response. In conclusion, wide-scale...
Background The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first reported in China, which caused a respiratory disease known as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Since its discovery, the virus has spread to over 100 countries and claimed more than 4000 deaths. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of various response public health measures. Method The stochastic agent-based model was used to simulate the process of COVID-19 outbreak in scenario I (imported one case) and II (imported four cases) with a series of public health measures, involving the personal protection, isolation-and-quarantine, gathering restriction, and community containment. The virtual community was constructed following the susceptible-latent-infectious-recovered framework. The epidemiological and economic parameters derived from the previous literature and...