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At the end of 2019, an outbreak of pneumonia took place caused by a new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2 virus), named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A series of strict prevention and control measures were then implemented to reduce the spread of the epidemic. Influenza, another respiratory tract virus, may also respond to these measures. To assess the impact of these measures, we used the total number of passengers movement in mainland China from 2018 to 2020 and daily number of railway passenger flow during the 2020 Spring Festival travel rush to reflect the population movement and to analyze newly and cumulatively confirmed COVID-19 and influenza cases. We found that implementing the series of measures against COVID-19 mitigated both COVID-19 and influenza epidemics in China. Prevention and control measures for COVID-19 might be used to control respiratory tract infections to...

A new susceptible-exposed-infected-asymptomatically infected-removed (SEIAR) model is developed to depict the COVID-19 transmission process, considering the latent period and asymptomatically infected. We verify the suppression effect of typical measures, cultivating human awareness, and reducing social contacts. As for cutting off social connections, the feasible measures encompass social distancing policy, isolating infected communities, and isolating hub nodes. Furthermore, it is found that implementing corresponding anti-epidemic measures at different pandemic stages can achieve significant results at a low cost. In the beginning, global lockdown policy is necessary, but isolating infected wards and hub nodes could be more beneficial as the situation eases. The proposed SEIAR model emphasizes the latent period and asymptomatically infected, thus providing theoretical support...

For mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic, much emphasis is made on implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions to keep the reproduction number below one. However, using that objective ignores that some of these interventions, like bans of public events or lockdowns, must be transitory and as short as possible because of their significant economic and societal costs. Here, we derive a simple and mathematically rigorous criterion for designing optimal transitory non-pharmaceutical interventions for mitigating epidemic outbreaks. We find that reducing the reproduction number below one is sufficient but not necessary. Instead, our criterion prescribes the required reduction in the reproduction number according to the desired maximum of disease prevalence and the maximum decrease of disease transmission that the interventions can achieve. We study the implications of our theoretical...

We analyze the determination of the optimal intensity and duration of social distancing policy aiming to control the spread of an infectious disease in a simple macroeconomic-epidemiological model. In our setting the social planner wishes to minimize the social costs associated with the levels of disease prevalence and output lost due to social distancing, both during and at the end of epidemic management program. Indeed, by limiting individuals’ ability to freely move or interact with others (since requiring to wear face mask or to maintain physical distance from others, or even forcing some businesses to remain closed), social distancing has on the one hand the effect to reduce the disease incidence and on the other hand to reduce the economy’s productive capacity. We analyze both the early and the advanced epidemic stage intervention strategies highlighting their implications...

Significance of the Study. The Known. Face masks were mandated in Victoria from 23 July 2020 onward, along with a 6-week stage three lockdown which commenced on 9 July 2020. Masks reduce the risk of infection with beta-coronaviruses. The New. Without masks, a 6-week lockdown and the current control measures would likely have resulted in a resurgence in Victoria by September 2020. Masks of modest to good quality with high enough usage (at least 50% of people) can substantially improve epidemic control. Early universal mask use results in a smaller epidemic than late mask use adoption.The ImplicationsThe Victorian government’s decision to mandate mask use is supported by our research. All efforts should be made to ensure the community have the information and means to obtain or make good quality cloth masks, along with instructions on correct mask use. High levels of mask use are...

This paper examines whether compliance with COVID-19 mitigation measures is motivated by wanting to save lives or save the economy (or both), and which implications this carries to fight the pandemic. National representative samples were collected from 24 countries (N = 25,435). The main predictors were (1) perceived risk to contract coronavirus, (2) perceived risk to suffer economic losses due to coronavirus, and (3) their interaction effect. Individual and country-level variables were added as covariates in multilevel regression models. We examined compliance with various preventive health behaviors and support for strict containment policies. Results show that perceived economic risk consistently predicted mitigation behavior and policy support-and its effects were positive. Perceived health risk had mixed effects. Only two significant interactions between health and...

While highly effective in preventing SARS-CoV-2 spread, national lockdowns come with an enormous economic price. Few countries have adopted an alternative “testing, tracing, and isolation” approach to selectively isolate people at high exposure risk, thereby minimizing the economic impact. To assist policy makers, we performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of these 2 strategies. A modified Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered, and Deceased (SEIRD) model was employed to assess the situation in Israel, a small country with ∼9 million people. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of these strategies as well as the expected number of infected individuals and deaths were calculated. A nationwide lockdown is expected to save, on average, 274 (median 124, interquartile range: 71-221) lives compared to the “testing, tracing, and isolation” approach. However, the ICER...

Identifying economically viable intervention measures to reduce COVID-19 transmission on aircraft is of critical importance especially as new SARS-CoV2 variants emerge. Computational fluid-particle dynamic simulations are employed to investigate aerosol transmission and intervention measures on a Boeing 737 cabin zone. The present study compares aerosol transmission in three models: (a) a model at full passenger capacity (60 passengers), (b) a model at reduced capacity (40 passengers), and (c) a model at full capacity with sneeze guards/shields between passengers. Lagrangian simulations are used to model aerosol transport using particle sizes in the 1-50 μm range, which spans aerosols emitted during breathing, speech, and coughing. Sneeze shields placed between passengers redirect the local air flow and transfer part of the lateral momentum of the air to longitudinal momentum....

Background: COVID-19, is a respiratory disease caused by a novel coronavirus. The virus is a global pandemic which threatens children and their rights in countries around the world. Epidemiologists have advocated for a robust testing and contact tracing as a potential solution to balance public health and economic priorities. Using Anderson Behavioral Model, our study aimed to analyze predisposing, Enabling and Need factors associated with VT4C-19 practice in Somalia. Methods: A cross sectional community-based survey were conducted at household level among adults above the age 18 years living in Mogadishu and Garowe cities. The study used multi-stage stratified-cluster sampling method. Out of the Four main towns in Somalia with a designated free National laboratory for COVID-19 testing by the government, the study randomly selected two cities (Mogadishu & Garowe)...

IntroductionIn addition to the serious physical health consequences of COVID-19, the resulting societal changes have had major impacts on population-wide mental health (Liu et al., 2020). COVID-19 has introduced a variety of stressors into modern life, including fears about contracting the virus, concern for loved ones, economic instability, social distancing, and other major lifestyle disruptions (Pfefferbaum and North, 2020). Many of these concerns have affected graduate and professional students (i.e., students earning advanced degrees, as well as non-traditional and non-degree seeking students). Even before the crisis, students were vulnerable to depression, anxiety, loneliness, and suicidal ideation (Evans et al., 2018). The COVID-19 crisis has exacerbated these concerns: many universities have ceased non-essential operations, mandated that students leave campus, and shut...