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With a two-layer contact-dispersion model and data in China, we analyze the cost-effectiveness of three types of antiepidemic measures for COVID-19: regular epidemiological control, local social interaction control, and inter-city travel restriction. We find that: 1) intercity travel restriction has minimal or even negative effect compared to the other two at the national level; 2) the time of reaching turning point is independent of the current number of cases, and only related to the enforcement stringency of epidemiological control and social interaction control measures; 3) strong enforcement at the early stage is the only opportunity to maximize both antiepidemic effectiveness and cost-effectiveness; 4) mediocre stringency of social interaction measures is the worst choice. Subsequently, we cluster countries/regions into four groups based on their control measures and...

During the COVID-19 crisis there have been many difficult decisions governments and other decision makers had to make. E.g. do we go for a total lock down or keep schools open? How many people and which people should be tested? Although there are many good models from e.g. epidemiologists on the spread of the virus under certain conditions, these models do not directly translate into the interventions that can be taken by government. Neither can these models contribute to understand the economic and/or social consequences of the interventions. However, effective and sustainable solutions need to take into account this combination of factors. In this paper, we propose an agent-based social simulation tool, ASSOCC, that supports decision makers understand possible consequences of policy interventions, bu exploring the combined social, health and economic consequences of...

In this paper, we predict the health and economic consequences of immediate investment in personal protective equipment (PPE) for health care workers (HCWs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). An investment of $3.485 billion USD would adequately protect HCWs in all LMICs. This intervention saves 789,557 (95% CI: 741,905 to 837,209) lives across LMICs, costing $418 USD per HCW case averted and $4,448 USD per HCW life saved. The societal return on investment (ROI) is $241.1 billion USD, the equivalent of a 6,918% return. Regional and national estimates are also presented. In scenarios where PPE remains scarce, 70-100% of HCWs will get infected, irrespective of nationwide social distancing policies. Maintaining HCW infection rates below 10% and mortality below 1% requires inclusion of a PPE scale-up strategy as part of the pandemic response. In conclusion, wide-scale...

The objective of our study is to conduct and accomplish a retrospective analysis of the macro-economic repercussions of the various Pandemics which have emerged till date and also to forecast the impact of COVID-19 on the Indian Economy. COVID-19 is a contagious disease belonging to the SARS COV-2 family. The best method recommended to restrain the virus is by social distancing and self-isolation. The major method being used by infected countries is complete lock down. This method may help in containing the virus spread but it is paving the way to the Global recession which will have a severe consequence on all sectors of the economy and all the countries-be it developed or developing. We also suggest that additional work is necessary to develop a more comprehensive macro-economic model in order to accurately estimate the relative cost and effects of a global response to the...

The Covid-19 pandemic has motivated a myriad of studies and proposals on how economic policy should respond to this colossal shock. But participants in this debate seldom recognize that the health shock is not entirely exogenous. Its magnitude and dynamics themselves depend on economic policies, and the explicit or implicit incentives those policies provide. To illuminate the feedback loops between medical and economic factors we develop a minimal economic model of pandemics. In the model, as in reality, individual decisions to comply (or not) with virus-related public health directives depend on economic variables and incentives, which themselves respond to current economic policy and expectations of future policies. The analysis yields several practical lessons: because policies affect the speed of virus transmission via incentives, public health measures and economic policies can...

Covid-19 induced job losses occurred predominantly in industries with intensive worker-client interaction as well as in pink-collar and blue-collar occupations. We study the ability of fiscal policy to stabilize employment by occupation and industry during the Covid-19 crisis. We use a multi-sector, multi-occupation macroeconomic model and investigate different fiscal policy instruments that help the economy recover faster. We show that fiscal stimuli foster job growth for hard-hit pink-collar workers, whereas stimulating blue-collar job creation is more challenging. A cut in labor taxes performs best in stabilizing total employment and the employment composition.

Background The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first reported in China, which caused a respiratory disease known as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Since its discovery, the virus has spread to over 100 countries and claimed more than 4000 deaths. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of various response public health measures. Method The stochastic agent-based model was used to simulate the process of COVID-19 outbreak in scenario I (imported one case) and II (imported four cases) with a series of public health measures, involving the personal protection, isolation-and-quarantine, gathering restriction, and community containment. The virtual community was constructed following the susceptible-latent-infectious-recovered framework. The epidemiological and economic parameters derived from the previous literature and...

The World Health Organization currently recommends that governments scale up testing for COVID-19 infection. We performed health economic analyses projecting whether the additional costs from screening would be offset by the avoided costs with hospitalizations. We analysed Portuguese COVID-19 data up until the 22nd March 2020, and estimated the additional number of cases that would be detected if different testing rates and frequencies of positive results would have been observed. We projected that, in most scenarios, the costs with scaling up COVID-19 tests would be lower than savings with hospitalization costs, rendering large scale testing cost-saving.

Objective: According to the WHO coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation report 35, as of 24 th February 2020, there was a total of 77,262 confirmed COVID-19 cases in China. That included 2,595 deaths. The specific objective of this study was to estimate the fiscal value of human lives lost due to COVID-19 in China as of 24 th February 2020. Results: The deaths from COVID-19 had a discounted (at 3%) total fiscal value of Int$ 924,346,795 in China. Out of which, 63.2% was borne by people aged 25-49 years, 27.8% by people aged 50-64 years, and 9.0% by people aged 65 years and above. The average fiscal value per death was Int$ 356,203. Re-estimation of the economic model alternately with 5% and 10 discount rates led to a reduction in the expected total fiscal value by 21.3% and 50.4%, respectively. Furthermore, the re-estimation of the economic model using the world’s highest average...

Since the coronavirus outbreak began in January, Chinese business activity has been severely slowed, affecting China’s position in the global industrial supply chain. The Enterprise Survey for Innovation and Entrepreneurship in China (ESIEC) launched a survey on the “condition of micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) amidst the coronavirus outbreak.” Our surveyors then conducted follow-up interviews with a representative sample of private entrepreneurs from a database maintained over the past three years, asking about the resumption of production as well the different challenges enterprises face. Our findings include: