Working Paper
1 April 2020
Christian Bredemeier, Falko Juessen, Roland Winkler
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Covid-19 induced job losses occurred predominantly in industries with intensive worker-client interaction as well as in pink-collar and blue-collar occupations. We study the ability of fiscal policy to stabilize employment by occupation and industry during the Covid-19 crisis. We use a multi-sector, multi-occupation macroeconomic model and investigate different fiscal policy instruments that help the economy recover faster. We show that fiscal stimuli foster job growth for hard-hit pink-collar workers, whereas stimulating blue-collar job creation is more challenging. A cut in labor taxes performs best in stabilizing total employment and the employment composition.
Preprint
27 March 2020
Wang, Qiang,Shi, Naiyang,Huang, Jinxin,Cui, Tingting,Yang, Liuqing,Ai, Jing,Ji, Hong,Xu, Ke,Ahmad, Tauseef,Bao, Changjun,Jin, Hui
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Background The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first reported in China, which caused a respiratory disease known as Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). Since its discovery, the virus has spread to over 100 countries and claimed more than 4000 deaths. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of various response public health measures. Method The stochastic agent-based model was used to simulate the process of COVID-19 outbreak in scenario I (imported one case) and II (imported four cases) with a series of public health measures, involving the personal protection, isolation-and-quarantine, gathering restriction, and community containment. The virtual community was constructed following the susceptible-latent-infectious-recovered framework. The epidemiological and economic parameters derived from the previous literature and...
Preprint
27 March 2020
Sousa Pinto, Bernardo,Fonseca, Joao Almeida,Costa Pereira, Altamiro,Rocha Goncalves, Francisco Nuno
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The World Health Organization currently recommends that governments scale up testing for COVID-19 infection. We performed health economic analyses projecting whether the additional costs from screening would be offset by the avoided costs with hospitalizations. We analysed Portuguese COVID-19 data up until the 22nd March 2020, and estimated the additional number of cases that would be detected if different testing rates and frequencies of positive results would have been observed. We projected that, in most scenarios, the costs with scaling up COVID-19 tests would be lower than savings with hospitalization costs, rendering large scale testing cost-saving.
Preprint
3 March 2020
Kirigia, Joses M,Muthuri, Rosenabi Deborah Karimi
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Objective: According to the WHO coronavirus disease (COVID-19) situation report 35, as of 24 th February 2020, there was a total of 77,262 confirmed COVID-19 cases in China. That included 2,595 deaths. The specific objective of this study was to estimate the fiscal value of human lives lost due to COVID-19 in China as of 24 th February 2020.
Results: The deaths from COVID-19 had a discounted (at 3%) total fiscal value of Int$ 924,346,795 in China. Out of which, 63.2% was borne by people aged 25-49 years, 27.8% by people aged 50-64 years, and 9.0% by people aged 65 years and above. The average fiscal value per death was Int$ 356,203. Re-estimation of the economic model alternately with 5% and 10 discount rates led to a reduction in the expected total fiscal value by 21.3% and 50.4%, respectively. Furthermore, the re-estimation of the economic model using the world’s highest average...
Working Paper
28 February 2020
Xiaobo Zhang
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Since the coronavirus outbreak began in January, Chinese business activity has been severely slowed, affecting China’s position in the global industrial supply chain. The Enterprise Survey for Innovation and Entrepreneurship in China (ESIEC) launched a survey on the “condition of micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) amidst the coronavirus outbreak.” Our surveyors then conducted follow-up interviews with a representative sample of private entrepreneurs from a database maintained over the past three years, asking about the resumption of production as well the different challenges enterprises face. Our findings include: