On February 19th 2020, the Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MoHME) has announced the first 2 cases of SARS-CoV-2, a novel emerging coronavirus which causes an infection termed as COVID-19, in Qom city. As such, the Iranian government, through the establishment of the “National Headquarters for the management and control of the novel Coronavirus”, has started implementing policies and programs for the prevention and control of the virus. These measures include schools and universities closure, reduced working hours, and increased production and delivery of equipment such as masks, gloves and hygienic materials for sterile environments. The government has also made efforts to divulge high-quality information concerning the COVID-19 and to provide laboratories and hospitals with diagnostic kits and adequate resources to treat patients. However, despite such efforts,...
There has been considerable public debate about whether the economic impact
of the current COVID19 restrictions are worth the costs. Although the potential
impact of COVID19 has been modelled extensively, very few numbers have been
presented in the discussions about potential economic impacts. For a good
answer to the question – will the restrictions cause as much harm as COVID19? –
credible evidence-based estimates are required, rather than simply rhetoric.
Here we provide some preliminary estimates to compare the impact of the current
restrictions against the direct impact of the virus. Since most countries are
currently taking an approach that reduces the number of COVID19 deaths, the
estimates we provide for deaths from COVID19 are deliberately taken from the
low end of the estimates of the infection fatality rate, while estimates for
deaths from an economic recession...
Presented here is a simplified mathematical model describing a supply side crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic (COVID – 19). Model of a single-product economy is presented where the supply shock has a constant acceleration. If amount of the supply shock has a modest positive acceleration the product earnings are positive and increasing with the passage of time. We observe an economic growth. If amount of the supply shock has a large positive acceleration the product earnings are negative and decreasing with the passage of time. We observe an economic decline. If amount of the supply shock has a negative acceleration the product earnings are negative and decreasing with the passage of time. We observe an economic decline. Economic mechanism of the supply side crisis is conceptually close to a mechanism of economic growth caused by investment. Moreover, economic system is able...
With the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, one of the major concerns is the direct medical cost and resource use burden imposed on the US health care system. We developed a Monte Carlo simulation model that represented the US population and what could happen to each person who got infected. We estimated resource use and direct medical costs per symptomatic infection and at the national level, with various “attack rates” (infection rates), to understand the potential economic benefits of reducing the burden of the disease. A single symptomatic COVID-19 case could incur a median direct medical cost of $3,045 during the course of the infection alone. If 80 percent of the US population were to get infected, the result could be a median of 44.6 million hospitalizations, 10.7 million intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, 6.5 million patients requiring a ventilator, 249.5...
Background: COVID-19 epidemic has become a significant public health crisis affecting global health. We aimed further to clarify the clinical and medical expense characteristics of COVID-19. Methods: In this retrospective, single-center study, we included all cured cases with confirmed COVID-19 in Henan Provincial People’s Hospital from Jan 23 to Mar 10, 2020. Cases were analyzed for demographic, epidemiological, clinical, and radiological features and medical expense data. Findings: The average age of the 54 successfully treated patients with COVID-19 was 53.2 years old (SD 19.0), including 27 men and 27 women. Off this, 31 (57.4%) patients had chronic diseases. Patients commonly had clinical manifestations of fever (45 [83.3%] patients), cough (29[54.7%] patients), expectoration (28 [51.9%] patients), fatigue (24[44.4%] patients) and diarrhea (8[14.8%] patients) on admission. There...
With a two-layer contact-dispersion model and data in China, we analyze the
cost-effectiveness of three types of antiepidemic measures for COVID-19:
regular epidemiological control, local social interaction control, and
inter-city travel restriction. We find that: 1) intercity travel restriction
has minimal or even negative effect compared to the other two at the national
level; 2) the time of reaching turning point is independent of the current
number of cases, and only related to the enforcement stringency of
epidemiological control and social interaction control measures; 3) strong
enforcement at the early stage is the only opportunity to maximize both
antiepidemic effectiveness and cost-effectiveness; 4) mediocre stringency of
social interaction measures is the worst choice. Subsequently, we cluster
countries/regions into four groups based on their control measures and...
During the COVID-19 crisis there have been many difficult decisions
governments and other decision makers had to make. E.g. do we go for a total
lock down or keep schools open? How many people and which people should be
tested? Although there are many good models from e.g. epidemiologists on the
spread of the virus under certain conditions, these models do not directly
translate into the interventions that can be taken by government. Neither can
these models contribute to understand the economic and/or social consequences
of the interventions. However, effective and sustainable solutions need to take
into account this combination of factors. In this paper, we propose an
agent-based social simulation tool, ASSOCC, that supports decision makers
understand possible consequences of policy interventions, bu exploring the
combined social, health and economic consequences of...
In this paper, we predict the health and economic consequences of immediate investment in personal protective equipment (PPE) for health care workers (HCWs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). An investment of $3.485 billion USD would adequately protect HCWs in all LMICs. This intervention saves 789,557 (95% CI: 741,905 to 837,209) lives across LMICs, costing $418 USD per HCW case averted and $4,448 USD per HCW life saved. The societal return on investment (ROI) is $241.1 billion USD, the equivalent of a 6,918% return. Regional and national estimates are also presented. In scenarios where PPE remains scarce, 70-100% of HCWs will get infected, irrespective of nationwide social distancing policies. Maintaining HCW infection rates below 10% and mortality below 1% requires inclusion of a PPE scale-up strategy as part of the pandemic response. In conclusion, wide-scale...
The objective of our study is to conduct and accomplish a retrospective analysis of the macro-economic repercussions of the various Pandemics which have emerged till date and also to forecast the impact of COVID-19 on the Indian Economy. COVID-19 is a contagious disease belonging to the SARS COV-2 family. The best method recommended to restrain the virus is by social distancing and self-isolation. The major method being used by infected countries is complete lock down. This method may help in containing the virus spread but it is paving the way to the Global recession which will have a severe consequence on all sectors of the economy and all the countries-be it developed or developing. We also suggest that additional work is necessary to develop a more comprehensive macro-economic model in order to accurately estimate the relative cost and effects of a global response to the...
The Covid-19 pandemic has motivated a myriad of studies and proposals on how economic policy should respond to this colossal shock. But participants in this debate seldom recognize that the health shock is not entirely exogenous. Its magnitude and dynamics themselves depend on economic policies, and the explicit or implicit incentives those policies provide. To illuminate the feedback loops between medical and economic factors we develop a minimal economic model of pandemics. In the model, as in reality, individual decisions to comply (or not) with virus-related public health directives depend on economic variables and incentives, which themselves respond to current economic policy and expectations of future policies. The analysis yields several practical lessons: because policies affect the speed of virus transmission via incentives, public health measures and economic policies can...