C19 Health Economics Literature

We compare the health and economic costs of early (actual), delayed and no suppression of COVID 19 infections in 2020 in Australia. Using a fit for purpose compartment model that we fitted from recorded data, a value of a statistical life year (VSLY) and an age-adjusted value of statistical life (AVSL), we find: (1) the economic costs of no suppression are multiples more than for early suppression; (2) VSLY welfare losses of fatalities equivalent to GDP losses mean that for early suppression to not to be the preferred strategy requires that Australians prefer more than 12,500 to 30,000 deaths to the economy costs of early suppression, depending on the fatality rate; and (3) early rather than delayed suppression imposes much lower economy and health costs. We conclude that in high-income countries, like Australia, a go early, go hard strategy to suppress COVID 19 results in the lowest...

The current COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns have highlighted the close and delicate relationship between a country’s public health and economic health. Macroeconomic models which use preexisting epidemic models to calculate the impacts of a disease outbreak are therefore extremely useful for policymakers seeking to evaluate the best course of action in such a crisis. We develop an SIR model of the COVID-19 pandemic which explicitly considers herd immunity, behavior-dependent transmission rates, remote workers, and indirect externalities of lockdown. This model is presented as an exit time control problem where the lockdown ends when the population achieves herd immunity, either naturally or via a vaccine. A social planner prescribes separate levels of lockdown for two separate sections of the adult population – those who are low-risk (ages 20-64) and those who are...

How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected state budgets? Using a quarterly panel of states between 1994 and 2019, we estimate how changes in employment affect tax revenues. We find that a one percentage point (pp) rise in employment is associated with a 1.56pp rise in total tax revenue, which is concentrated among sales taxes (a 1.19pp increase), individual income taxes (a 1.63pp increase), and corporate income taxes (a 4.13pp increase). These results are robust to a wide array of controls, such as state composition and housing price growth, and instrumental variable specifications. After estimating state-specific elasticities, and forecasting counterfactual employment within states using the most recent data, we find that the average state will experience a 6.7% (11.1%) decline in their tax revenues under an optimistic (pessimistic) scenario, culminating in $79.9 ($125.2) billion in...

Since the start of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, the family planning community has focused their attention on mitigating the devastating consequences of failing to meet women’s needs for contraception. Recent estimates by the Guttmacher Institute suggest that with even just a 10% decline in use of short-term and long-acting reversible contraceptives (LARC) across 132 low- and middle-income countries, unmet need for contraception would increase by 48.6 million women and lead to 15 million additional unintended pregnancies.1 That risk grows each day as reports come to light of clinic closures, the reduced mobile outreach services2,3 and declines in the number of clients attending even open clinics.4To ensure women’s access to a full range of methods as well as removal services, we have seen calls from across the RH community to safeguard the integrity of existing...

We examined whether the greater severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) amongst men and Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) individuals is explained by cardiometabolic, socio-economic or behavioural factors. We studied 4510 UK Biobank participants tested for COVID-19 (positive, n = 1326). Multivariate logistic regression models including age, sex and ethnicity were used to test whether addition of (1) cardiometabolic factors [diabetes, hypertension, high cholesterol, prior myocardial infarction, smoking and body mass index (BMI)]; (2) 25(OH)-vitamin D; (3) poor diet; (4) Townsend deprivation score; (5) housing (home type, overcrowding) or (6) behavioural factors (sociability, risk taking) attenuated sex/ethnicity associations with COVID-19 status. There was over-representation of men and BAME ethnicities in the COVID-19 positive group. BAME individuals had, on average,...

As the COVID-19 pandemic hits economic activity, the vulnerabilities of longer and more geographically extended trade credit chains are coming to the fore, especially those related to international trade. While risk mitigation is available from financial intermediaries, the bulk of the exposures associated with supply chains is borne by the participating firms themselves, through inter-firm credit. Given the prevalence of the US dollar in trade financing, measures such as central bank swap lines that ease global dollar credit conditions may cushion the impact of the pandemic on global value chains.

The WHO declared the novel coronavirus disease a pandemic, with severe consequences for health and global economic activity and Italy is one of the hardest hit countries. This study aims to assess the socio-economic burden of COVID-19 pandemic in Italy through the estimation of Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and productivity loss. The observational study was based on data from official governmental sources collected since the inception of epidemic until 28 April 2020. DALYs for a disease combines the years of life lost due to premature mortality in the population and the years lost due to disability of the disease. In addition to DALYs, temporary productivity loss due to absenteeism from work and permanent productivity loss due to premature mortality were estimated using the Human Capital Approach. The total DALYs amount to 2.01 per 1000 persons. The total permanent...

The COVID-19 pandemic is not just a health crisis – it is a full-blown economic and social crisis that is impacting the lives and livelihoods of billions of people. This commentary examines the mutually dependent relationship between health security and universal health coverage (UHC), and how the longstanding underinvestment in both renders us all vulnerable. It also discusses the vulnerability of services for sexual and reproductive health and rights (SRHR) in times of crisis, which is compounded when these services are not included and well integrated into national UHC packages. It concludes with a call for stronger political leadership for UHC and SRHR as the global community strives to “build back better” after COVID-19.

Background: This study aims to investigate willingness to pay for a potential vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 among adult persons in Romania. The study was conducted during the peak period of  the pandemic curve in Europe and Romania, too.Methods: An online survey was developed and delivered to Romanian general population by using two of the largest social networking web services (Facebook and LinkedIn). The questionnaire included demographic data, description of the responder’s financial situation and their willingness to pay for a hypothetical anti COVID-19 vaccine. The study was based on the Van Westendorp Price Sensitivity Meter method.Results: A total of 203 adult subjects participated in the survey; 42.4% male and 55,2% members of a family with at least one child. Mean participants’ age was 44.12 ± 8.9 (mean ± SD). The acceptable price range for a vaccine against...

Background: In an unparalleled global response, during the COVID-19 pandemic, 90 countries asked 3.9 billion people to stay home. Yet some countries avoided lockdowns and focused on other strategies, like contact tracing and case isolation. How effective and cost-effective are these strategies? We aimed to provide a comprehensive summary of the evidence on pandemic control, with a focus on cost-effectiveness. Methods: Following PRISMA systematic review guidelines, MEDLINE (1946 to April week 2, 2020) and Embase (1974 to April 17, 2020) were searched using a range of terms related to pandemic control. Articles reporting on the effectiveness or cost-effectiveness of at least one intervention were included and grouped into higher-quality evidence (randomized trials) and lower-quality evidence (other study designs). Results: We found 1,653 papers; 62 were included. Higher-quality...